I’ve joined the 10 percent and growing

by justingibbs on March 24, 2009

I’ve joined the unemployed, now part of the 10.5% and growing in California. I knew it was a risk to join any start-up last year, especially one in the virtual world space like Vivaty. I would still do it all over again as I learned more than I would have guessed about a field that has captured my attention the last 2 years – virtual worlds. However we all know the industry isn’t doing well, even removed from the larger economy. The Virtual Worlds Conference encapsulates the most recent chapter in virtual worlds – Virtual Worlds 1.0.

The latest chapter

The first Virtual Worlds Conference took place in New York (March 28-29, 2007). The hype around Second Life was probably at its pinnacle. The second conference in San Jose (October 10-11, 2007) was probably the pinnacle for the conference. It looked like a real conference, with all the big players sporting huge booths – The Electronic Sheep Company, Millions of Us, IBM, etc. But more than that the keynote was from the creator of CSI, Anthony Zuiker, who announced the integration of the show and Second Life. It was as if virtual worlds had arrived. But that was merely exuberance. The integration was a total failure. Over the next few months the buzz around Second Life faded. A year later the Virtual Worlds Conference would move to LA and many of the booths were gone. Then the conference changed it’s name to Engage! to seemingly escape the virtual worlds label and to expand its audience. It did little help, word from the latest Engage! conference in New York (March 10-11, 2009) was that organizers nearly canceled it for lack of attendance.

The excitement around virtual worlds is gone, it’s left the building. Of course it will be back, but this tour (one of many) is over.

Virtual Worlds 1.0

Working at Vivaty I become convinced that virtual worlds are a context play or at least they will be going forward. Virtual worlds simply don’t work as social networks – they add little if any value over 2D. I was at Yahoo! when we introduced 2D customizable avatars, they were great but users found they had little use for them. Virtual worlds 1.0 is now defined and it’s potential known – outside of little kids worlds and MMOGs there is little upside. Sally Schmidt of Circle 1 Network laid it out the five keys to virtual worlds 1.0.

She then broke down the five key strategic points into the 5 Cs: Creativity (dressing up avatars, decorating homes, designing clothes), Collection (free goods, paid goods, points), Caring (feeding a virtual pet, charity), Community (chat, events, message boards), and last but not least Competition (levels, comparing points wit other players). Her conclusion was that each of the big sites encompass all five key points, but only strongly emphasize a few. For instance, on Stardoll the draw is obviously in the creativity of designing your own clothes and styling your avatar. On Neopets, your role as pet owner promotes caring.

Virtual worlds are inevitable

Eventually 3D will be pervasive as it is in the video game market today, but that transition took years. This all reminds me of a question I heard years ago – Why do grown up men read comic books in Japan? Because they grew up on manga and the medium grew with them. It could have happened here in America too if it wasn’t for something called the Comics Code.

Virtual worlds 2.0 will be less about the technology

So we can wait for the kids of today playing with Club Penguin to grow up and expect the characteristics of virtual worlds in everything or we can continue to try and find that thing that one thing that jump starts the growth in virtual worlds – what makes them 2.0. My guess that whatever that is, it will not be pure technology. Certainly it will require new leaps in technology but won’t be a technology play.

Movies did not flourish until the engineers lost control to artists – or more precisely, to the communications craftsmen. The same thing is happening now with personal computers.

- Paul Heckel from The Elements of Friendly Software Design

Games industry can crush us

Virtual worlds are worlds, not simply spaces. What’s your theme, what’s the story here? Those are the questions users are asking; they think the 3D is nifty but what story are you offering? It’s the difference between Six Flags and Disneyland. Six Flags has to keep up with the arms race in ever bigger and more extreme rides, where Disneyland has created a story world. For the last few years Six Flags has been trying to become more like Disneyland.

Six Flags also acquired Dick Clark Productions, which produces the Golden Globes and American Music Awards, and Mr. Shapiro positioned the company as a mini-Walt Disney that offered families a similar experience, but at lower cost.

- Six Flags in Negotiations to Stave Off Chapter 11

For the virtual worlds industry it’s even more dangerous to play in the arms race, our competition is the games industry and they  can crush us in an instance. If people just want pure entertainment they’ll play a game. And as we’ve seen with Arcadia, they don’t need game worlds either. Virtual worlds are different, they’re about story or at least they will be.

As for me

I’m going to regroup and try to find my next job in something more entertainment focused, but hopefully still in the virtual world space. I should also have ample time to finish that screenplay.

Related posts:

  1. Virtual worlds between a rock and a hard spot

Tagged as: virtual worlds 2.0, Vivaty

  • Lewis
    Sorry to hear about your job. There are a million companies, even the hurting ones, that would be foolish not to hire you!
  • justingibbs
    Thanks Lewis,

    Maybe I'll have to head back down to LA. At any rate I might be cruising through town in a week or two, will let you know.
  • It's up to the comic industry to anticipate this, innovate and if they don't they become obsolete. But the masses won't miss them, they no longer represent their vision, just an outdated solution.

    So where virtual Worlds used to be a technology, a tool and an industry, maybe the 'VW shake up' is a wake up call to regard Virtual Worlds as a vision - and if it does I'm sure you are going to find a fitting place somewhere soon to share yours, define the change that is desirable and allow technology to catch up with that, instead of the other way around.

    Oh and good luck on your billion dollar script! ;-)
    - Rick

    PS. had to split the comment in three because IntenseDebate apparantly doesn't like long replies :p
  • justingibbs
    Thanks Rick,

    You've inspired me to switch my blog title back to Failed Screenwriter. It was the title I started with a few years ago but moved away from for various reasons, however at this time of pause it seems appropriate to reinvigorate my message of story. Look for a flurry of new posts related to story. And hopefully I'll be able to find a virtual worlds job, but I can't wait forever in this economy. At any rate I'll keep pushing forward with my writing and real time story.

    Thanks again for the words of encouragement and I have no idea why IntenseDebate won't let you leave a longer comment. I'm only using it because it's now part of Automattic, but development isn't progressing as fast as I'd like. Same goes for their BBPress forum product.

    - justin
  • All of these questions have nothing to do with technology. If it's desirable, it will be build. Technology is just the tool to deliver the change, just as comics were once a tool to bring about a change in storytelling, solving the problem of timeconsuming books that didn't appeal to the visually minded youth (just as these books where once a solution to the same desire, but solved different problems).

    The desire itself never left, or is in no risk of dying because of new generations - but the medium (or rather the technology) will evolve - from comics to movies to games because the tool/technology (comics) was simply the best available solution at that time.

    Seperating the tools/technology from desirable change is also seperating vision from industry. Of course the comic industry is concerned about the future of comics - but 'the masses' are telling them to move on: They have found a suitable alternative tool to satisfy the consistent desire (vision) of consuming and sharing stories.
  • Hi Justin - I hope you get back in the Virtual World industry asap, it needs people like you.

    People to remind everyone it's not about technology, or even 'application'. If anything 'VW 2.0' should be about vision - Designing a change that is desirable.

    Your vision of the metaverse as a platform for stories and experiences is a solid start - and the tools and technology should evolve naturally to work towards this vision once the 'problem' has been defined. However, I also think that the 'problem' hasn't been clearly defined yet. Too many open questions, too many cliches, too many wrong expectations, and certainly too few lessons learned.

    I think in order to move to this 'Virtual Worlds 2.0' we need to ask some fundamental questions
    - Do Virtual Worlds really represent a change that is considered to be desirable?
    - If so, what defines the 'desirable change' that will drag us away from 'the way we've done things, and believed we'd be doing them for years to come'?
    - Are Virtual Worlds the best way to bring about this change?
  • Let's hope you find a job sooner than later. At your writing level, if you do finish that winning screenplay it will probably take decades.

    Interesting notion about the Japanese male and manga vs. the American male and comics, except it's slightly wrong. "They" (comic book journalists, editors, folks in the know) argue that the American comic industry is dying BECAUSE of the fact that the industry has grown up with the readers, thereby leaving potential younger customers behind. As the older readers die off, there's no one new, or at least not enough of them, to take the older reader's places. Also, the Comic's Code still is around, but for all intents and purposes it's dead. I'm not going to verify (somebody else can fact check) but I think Marvel ditched it a few years ago, and most of your larger indies (Dark Horse, IDW) don't even give it a thought.

    A parallel example of success is the videogame industry which has found new life with the wii because it caters to that market that it first did 20 years ago. Kids. (not to mention the elderly and women) Once we (the children of the 70s and 80s) all grew up, no one was making a new Super Mario World for the under 16 sect. We graduated from Donkey Kong to God of War 2 and don't have time for that kiddie nonsense anymore. The wii has franchised a group that had previously been disenfranchised. Comics is trying to do the same, but its a bit tougher ride for them because of various factors, the biggest of which is their medium's sole fate relies on paper. A medium that itself is dying. What's comic books without paper? It's not a book. You can't collect it. What's the point? Those aren't thoughts that go through my mind, but I'm sure it does of people that go to Marvel.com to read the latest issue of whatever. It's just not catching on. Marvel to their credit is very progressive in pushing movies, (and were smart to finance them so they can reap the rewards instead of a studio) but there are plenty of other companies that are finding themselves in worse albiet self-imposed because of stubborness, predicament.

    Anyway, that had nothing to do with virtual worlds. But I'm still of the mind that virtual worlds means pretty much nothing unless you offer a story to go along with it. Something that lets me escape instead of doing the same things and giving me the same restrictions i have in real life. I can do real life. And no one charges me 19.95 a month to do it on top of the rent and food I buy to keep my real life world chugging along.

    How's that for a comment!
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