Last week a friend asked me, what do virtual worlds need to go mainstream? After a minute my answer was pretty simple, for Apple to get involved. Apple could revolutionize the industry for consumer virtual worlds as they did with the MP3 player and phone market.
By now the field for consumer virtual worlds is pretty well defined. We’ve seen success with MMOGs and kids worlds, as well as complete failures such as Google Lively and the Second Life tie in with CSI. We’ve learned what it takes to make a virtual world successful – Sally Schmidt of Circle 1 Network laid it out at the recent Engage! Expo. And with that virtual worlds loses some of the excitement and enthusiasm which sprung forth after Second Life hit the public’s imagination. Maybe this is to be expected but I feel there is still a lot of unexplored potential. Interesting enough this is also the time where Apple enters the market.
The market for MP3 players was pretty well defined by the time Apple entered it with the iPod. Everyone already knew how the game was played – it was all about price and expanding flash memory. Some companies had already tried using expensive mini hard drives and they bombed because of price so they laughed when Apple entered with a $400 MP3 player based on a mini hard drive. Needless to say the leading MP3 players of the time are all but gone and Apple owns 70% or more of the market today. Apple would do the same with the iPhone. So what could Apple hope for entering the virtual world space? What would an Apple virtual world, an iWorld look like?
Browser based
Seeing Google release O3D (an open-source web API for 3D) and Mozilla is working with the Khronos Group to develop a similar API for Firefox I can’t help but think Apple is working to add one to Safari as well. That way users won’t need to download and install additional plugins, the 3D will be native to the browser. It would also lend itself to going mobile as well.
Entertainment focused
My guess is that it’ll be entertainment focused. There are many examples of successful virtual worlds – enterprise, virtual events, serious games, etc. but if you’re talking consumer based it’s quickly narrowed to games and kids. On one end we have World of Warcraft and MMOGs, on the other we have kids worlds with strong context like Club Penguin. Google Lively, which flamed out after only a few months, was neither. It had little context and only promised game developers tools in the future. The fact is that when new users enter these virtual worlds their first question is usually – how do I play the game or what’s the story? If the answer is anything like, “It’s a 3D social network where you can express yourself” they run for the hills. Even if you incorporate, “play games with friends” it won’t resolve the users confusion. They already have a social network, it’s called Facebook. They already have messenger and they were never lacking for ways to express themselves. When they see 3D they think game, they think entertainment.
Need more than just a game or games
Naturally when people think entertainment and computers they think games, it’s the same with virtual worlds. But I’m guessing Apple would take it beyond this obvious conclusion. For one games are a hits driven business and second, they are not Apple’s strong suit. Apple also likes to appeal to wide audiences and crossover hits like Tetris and the Sims are notoriously difficult to come by. World of Warcraft is wildly popular but it’s audience is still rather narrow compared to Apple’s other markets.
That isn’t to say that Apple will completely neglect gaming aspects, it just won’t be core. Apple could turn the virtual world into a platform for game developers such as the iPhone is with app games. However the iPhone launched without an app store and was still a success. The games help but are not core.
Another way to think about it is by examining virtual worlds that build themselves around games or mini games. It seems like a logical step, once you have people in world keep them entertained with games, it’s also a common request from users. The only problem is that this strategy puts the virtual world in competition with game companies and casual game sites. The question then becomes what do you bring to the table that is different? What is core to your experience that you can’t get on a casual game site? It’s a difficult question and one where I think we’ll see the real innovation coming from Apple.
Apple won’t fall for the self expression myth
The question is what does your virtual world bring to the table that is different? Most virtual worlds would answer with some combination of an avatar and self expression. Problem is I was never hurting for new ways to express myself. Oh people love customizing their avatars and virtual rooms, however after a few weeks it gets old and they move on. People use to spend hours building homepages on GeoCities, customizing their MySpace page, but they’ve all moved on.
The same happened with Yahoo! avatars. It was one of the top requests from users for years and they were excited when we launched early 2D versions, but after a few months there was little activity.
The majority of users are just observers not content creators. Even less are artists in need of self expression. Such features can greatly enhance a service, but can’t carry a service on there own.
Strong context
So what else might Apple’s virtual world build at its core around? Simply having avatars and allowing for personalization probably isn’t going to separate it enough from casual game sites and the rest of the competition. Kid’s worlds get around this with strong context. Kids find endless entertainment in the penguins of Club Penguin, even if they aren’t playing a game. However with strong context Apple faces the same problems as if it was game laden – it’s tough to appeal to a wide audience and it’ll evolve into a hits driven business.
Instead of games, story
Maybe it isn’t necessarily a question of what Apple could bring in addition to the games but the games and activities themselves. Most social gaming sites are a collection of self contained or semi-contained games and a leader board. Maybe the core of Apple’s virtual world will be set up by the selection of games themselves?
Games have notoriously been an insular industry. The Wii and Sims have shown that there is a much wider audience but it’s still very much locked to their traditional audience, because it’s safe. Serious games have shown some of the potential outside of shoot’em up games. And there are simulations, interactive story, immersive story, etc. There is a lot of potential that has never truly been explored. It’s risky when games costs go into the millions, but Apple has shown the wherewithal to place big bets before, like switching to Intel chips.
What it really opens up is room for story in the gaming world. Instead of the challenge leading people through the experience the drama could. Of course the conflict between games and story have been played out many times before and so far they have remained separate entities in many respects. It’s like sculpture vs painting, each has it’s own feature set however virtual worlds give us the ability to merge these like never before and this is where I believe Apple’s virtual world will play. It will push games into their next stage of evolution just as they did for the mobile Internet.
Platform for real time story artists
You just have to look at Xtranormal to see what is possible. With Xtranormal moving making is simple and completely digital. It isn’t much of a stretch to see it become real time with interactive or immersive story. AI technology is also improving, it’s not at the point where users can freely talk with chatterbots but in the hands of an artists a few constraints could unlock their potential. The technology is there, real time story artists have just never had it all brought together into a platform.
Think of it this way, the traditional carnival is full of games. Darts, the ring toss, and more. Rides were added, but it wasn’t until Disneyland opened that it truly entered into the story world. The App Store made it possible for game developers to create more games but an Apple virtual world could make it possible for real time story, for a Disneyland of story experiences.
Is Apple building one?
Well I’ve speculated a lot on what Apple would do if they built a virtual world, but is there any evidence that they’re building one? Not really, but then again Apple is one of the most secretive companies in the world. They just announced plans for an East Coast data center, which makes you think as virtual worlds are very processor intensive. Apple also isn’t saying what the data center is for nor how big it is going to be.
