On TechCrunch over the weekend Michael Arrington claimed it the age of Facebook.
Someday, maybe a decade from now, some new technology will rise and allow other companies to threaten Facebook. But until then there is little to stop them. Their march to dominance has just begun.
I agree that with Michael that Facebook has stolen the limelight from Google however I’m not as sure they will reign for a decade. One serious threat on the horizon – social games. Some go as far as to claim social games the killer app of social networks. According to a recent PopCap survey, 49% of the time social gamers login to Facebook specifically to play games.
That’s great for Facebook, currently it’s the home of social games. However I doubt Facebook is that comfortable with such a moniker. Facebook has already taken steps to limit the viral nature of social games, showing more of a concern to fight against spam. Facebook’s hesitation to fully embrace social games fully leaves the door wide open for competition. And seeing as how Facebook takes a 30% cut from game developers with Facebook credits they’re practically driving developers to seek out alternatives. In steps in Apple with Game Center. And how far behind could Google be with Android?
Michael is correct that no one will be able to take Facebook head on, but they can surely do an end-around by embracing social games. It might not be enough to topple Facebook but it could give some a beachhead. A decade is a long time to try and stay on top.
What do you think about Facebook leaving the window for social games open?
At the moment I think Facebook is using social game advertising revenues as a way to fund their real vision, which is to be a social backbone of the entire web.
When the Internet first started getting popular, it was organized around directories — Yahoo being the main one.
Currently, we see it as organized around keywords. Want to find something out? Search for it.
Facebook's vision is that soon the whole thing will be organized around relationships.
For Facebook, social gaming is a useful revenue stream in the short term — it means they don't need to keep going back to investors — but it's not the business they really want to be in.
Oh, and a follow up.
I launched by FBIndie blog about 2.5 months ago, and nearly all the traffic it gets comes through social networks — specifically Twitter, for the most part. Site launched a few years ago worried about SEO. Before that, it was getting “submitted” to directories.
Now, site owners need to worry about using social tools to get their content in front of people on the basis of relationships and interests. So a “social web” is already happening.
I would agree, Facebook is looking at what they think is the larger opportunity over just social games. However that might bite them in the ass eventually. You know the warning, don't try to be everything to everyone.
It does seem that the evolution of how we organize is moving to the social network, but that also brings up the fact that offline social networks are always in a state of flux. Coming together and then splintering into smaller groups. It seems everyone is coming together on Facebook today but tomorrow they might gravitate toward a more focused social game network.
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My concern for social games is their long-term revenue potential. None of the games I've spent time with seem to have much more draw than a rental video game. They get old fast. It seems like Zynga is doing much more aggressive promotion of their buy-credits model but I'm not sure that's the best route. Blizzard's monthly subscription seems to do a better job of keeping players around.
Facebook really does have the potential to be the biggest and baddest on the net… but there's one big difference with Google, money. It's really cute that they've put together a community that's almost unfathomable but how do they make money off of it? There's a fine line of what people will tolerate before they seek out alternatives. Once social games get more aggressive will that turn people off? Will that leak into Facebook?
Personally, I think the current social games are far too simple to keep players around for very long. Then again, my wife likes to play slot-machine games that require pressing one button (and sometimes none, they can play themselves). Either way, I think that long-term revenue streams for Facebook and Social Games (as they are now) aren't solid enough for Google to get scared about.