Google Plus is the beginning of the end for social networks

Google Plus has everyone talking. People asking for invites suggesting how it can beat Facebook, while others wonder if it ever could. As TechCrunch says, the war is on between Google Plus and Facebook. But is it really the beginning of the end for social networks?

Social networks are all about the newsfeed

Essentially the social network has become the newsfeed. Social networks provide the captive audience – your friends. You post because these people care and are more likely to respond with a comment. Prior to social networks blogs were all the rage and if you ever started one you probably know how lonely it could be. It’s like talking to an empty room, a dark empty room. And that was after you figured out what to write about in the first place. Social networks changed all that. You have a captive audience and you know exactly what to write about – yourself.

Which newsfeed, where do I post?

For most people today there are only two newsfeeds – Twitter and Facebook. LinkedIn is also making a good showing. Though essentially they have carved out their own niche. And now there is Google Plus. Where does it fit in? No need to answer, the fact that you have to ask is already changing the landscape. The next question is where do I post? Well when in doubt why not all of them? Posting to them all isn’t that difficult actually, many already support automatically posting from other feeds. You can post on Tumblr and have that automatically feed into Facebook. And now the social networks are getting more aggressive with transitioning your social graph. With Google Plus it certainly is a different landscape, almost as if the social networks are being marginalized.

Reminds me of instant messenger and its “end”

I use to work on Yahoo! Messenger and remember well the instant messenger wars. In Silicon Valley that war is ancient history. It started with ICQ, then came AOL Messenger. Friends would fight over which one to join. Then came Yahoo! Messenger and soon people would just join all of them. Then the natural thing was to start demanding interoperability.

Then came MSN Messenger and new clients that logged you into all of them – Meebo, Trillian, etc. The talk of interoperability died down and actually so did much of the hype around the whole instant messenger space. By the time GTalk entered the market much of the commotion had all but died down.

Instant messenger went from being all the rage to being something I got when I checked my email whether I needed it or not. The excitement I use to feel working on the Yahoo! Messenger team dissipated. I moved on, everyone moved on and that’s what I mean by “end”. I mean “end” in the way we say tech companies are dead. Granted there is still a lot of excitement in social networks – Facebook will set records with its IPO as Google Plus will likely set records for user growth. But I think we’ll look back to the Google Plus launch as the beginning of the end.

The rise of Social Circles

Jason Schwartz, the founder of matchbook, says that we’re moving from the social network era into the social circle era. I agree, but I might be a bit biased as I’ve never been a big social network user. I didn’t use them much because I didn’t feel the need to share with “everyone” I added as a friend. Facebook is more of a phonebook for me, a way to connect with everyone I ever met but not a tool to share. If I’m going to share on Facebook I would just as likely share on Twitter so the whole world could see. If I’m going to share with friends I do what I’ve always done and email local friends, college friends, etc. This is also what’s at the heart of Schwartz’s argument and I’m sold on his concept of social circles. I could really use something like that, however I don’t exactly agree with his theory that such circles will be built automatically.

Facebook has quite a few tools for managing groups of friends.  These fail because they rely on the user to manually curate these groups. Users won’t do the manual work necessary to make a Social Circle work, just like they won’t be selective with whom they friend on a check-in service.

One of the reasons I don’t share is I don’t know who will see it. For me to safely share I need to know exactly who will see my message. I’ve already lost track of who are my friends on Facebook, but let’s say Facebook gives me a way to automatically filter my friends. My question then would be can I trust it?

But could Google manage to make one automatically?

I can understand the appeal that algorithms will magically create and administer social circles, but then again there’s always algorithms arguments floating around Silicon Valley. They also don’t usually pan out. If anyone can make it work I would think it would be Google – they’re known for algorithms. Maybe they could create a social circle using Gmail. Would I use it? I couldn’t trust it completely as in theory the algorithm would constantly be adjusting who’s in my social circle and who isn’t. But maybe I would use it some of the time, perhaps to invite people to a parade or something. I doubt that would be enough for me to feel like it is anything other than a feature of Gmail and I think social circles have more potential – to be services in themselves.

Betting the battle for social circles will be more about positioning

All this reminds me of classic positioning marketing. Of all the brands in the world we identify them with something – Heinz is ketchup,  Porsche is sports cars, Cadillac is premium but not as premium as BMW. Facebook is a phonebook to me. To many it might be something different but I doubt it will be difficult for them to morph into a social circle.

Schwartz thinks the leader in social circles will be whoever can crack the nut on how to create social circles automatically.

Solving this problem is going to be very tricky. If you want to know why Path and Color were able to raise so much money, it’s because they are tackling this problem, not because they solved it.  The investors were placing a bet that if anyone can solve something as difficult as this, it will be those teams.

I’m betting it will end up being more of a battle of marketing. I’m waiting for such services, now one just needs to click for me. Maybe it will be a friends recommendation or one that catches fire on mobile. I’m not against having to manually create my circle, but I have to be sure who and who isn’t in my network at all times.

Does Ping really need Facebook Connect?

Apple’s new social network Ping had Facebook Connect one minute and not the next. It’s a bit odd for a feature like that to disappear in less than 24 hours, but what I found intriguing was some people’s reactions across the blogosphere. Om Malik was severely disappointed:

As a long-time customer of Apple and its iTunes store, I’m severely disappointed that I can’t bring my pre-configured social graph to Ping. I hope Apple and Facebook both come to an agreement and kiss and make-up.

Maybe it’s just me but I don’t want my social graph to follow me. I like having different graphs at different services. Having Facebook Connect would help me pull those that I might want over, but at the same time I’m kind of hoping the cool ones will move on their own and we’ll create a new social graph. I think it’s the same way with dive bars or clubs – you always keep moving.

Facebook Connect will most likely not return to Ping

Some speculate that this just part of corporate one-upmanship.

Otherwise, Ping would really suck and the big losers in this game of corporate one-upmanship are the consumers, who probably — like me–  just want recommendations from our friends, then buy those tunes.

Some believe that once it’s worked out, Facebook Connect will return. I highly doubt that, simply because Facebook charges for access.

According to AllThingsD, Facebook was responsible for turning off Apple’s access to its Facebook  Connect API. Typically this API is open to just about any application developer. However, with higher-volume apps (think social games and services with lots and lots of users), Facebook apparently requires a special agreement for these kinds of connections.

Apple is huge, they’re the product company everyone wants to emulate, their fans are rabid. Why would they need to pay for access? I’m sure what Apple asked itself is what’s the value add for Facebook Connect? Given who they are and that there are people like me out in the world who actively want to recreate social graphs they couldn’t justify the expense.

When I asked Jobs about that, he said Apple had indeed held talks with Facebook about a variety of unspecified partnerships related to Ping, but the discussions had gone nowhere. The reason, according to Jobs: Facebook wanted “onerous terms that we could not agree to.”

Ping is directly challenging Facebook’s place as the de facto social graph

We would be surprised if this feature didn’t make a reappearance at some point. That’s a good thing, because Facebook is becoming the de facto social graph for many users and makes the friend discovery process much easier.

I would agree that it is the de facto social graph today, but that is what Apple is challenging directly with Ping. My money isn’t so much on Ping, but more on the fact that Facebook’s lock on the de facto social graph is fading. I can still remember when there was only one place to build a personal homepage – GeoCities. Eventually people discovered other places, then entirely new ways to establish a home on the Internet.

Facebook seems unstoppable as of late, but this encounter with Apple could open up some cracks in the walls.

Will social games push users to open data standards?

Social gaming is getting a lot of buzz lately.  Not only is the industry profitable but it’s driving a lot of Facebook usage – the killer-app of social networks. A recent study from PopCap showed that many are using Facebook as a game platform.

Nearly half (49%) of the times when they log into social networks, social gamers do so specifically to play social games.

But no industry likes to be dependent on one company. Zynga has already begun to try and move away from Facebook by launching FarmVille.com. Social game developers love the Facebook firehose but don’t want to be dependent on it, which makes the latest version of BuddyPress interesting. With version 1.2.1 installation is as easy as adding a plugin to a standard WordPress blog.

Now you can use BuddyPress with your single site installation of WordPress, and you can keep your existing theme. Seriously, could BuddyPress have made it any easier for you to add social networking to your site? I know I can’t wait to try it out this weekend, how about you?

Which leads me to ask – will the growth of open independent social networks and protocols become a new platform for social games? And if they do, will social games in turn push users to these open data standards?

The first hurdle is registration

Having to register and setup an account had already kept me from participating in many an online forum and the same is likely with social networks. I can barely keep my Facebook account up to date much less MySpace, Friendster, and Orkut. With Ning I only have one login to access any social network they host. BuddyPress could integrate a similar type of solution using Gravitar or OpenID.

Second hurdle is content over connections

Ning has certainly made a good business out of servicing independent user-generated social networks. They aren’t exactly open but as an example they can be very telling. For one, Ning shows that it is more a content play than connecting with friends like on Facebook. Ning users setup networks around a club, organization, or a fan club. Much of its social networks can be considered niche.

Get a boost from social games

Ning has already proven that independent social networks can work, but like name brand social networks they can probably benefit from an infusion of social games. BuddyPress already supports a plugin framework which can be used to create some types of social games. Knowing that these independent social networks will be about content, imagine a social network about bread having a social recipe game? And if you don’t want to build it how about pulling from the WordPress plugin community or social game companies – who wouldn’t want more distribution.

Push for open data standards

If BuddyPress proves half as succesful as WordPress it will be a huge win for open data standards. It will also lend support for OStatus and other open standards. Combine that with Google Buzz, built on open data standards, and you can see a few cracks forming in Facebook’s walled garden.

But I think the biggest push might come from the social game developers trying to lessen their dependence on the Facebook fire hose. That might explain why Streamy CEO, Don Mosites, recently joined Zynga to work on a special project.

CEO Don Mosites, for one, is heading to Zynga to work on a “new, special project”. He won’t tell me what it is, but he promises it will be “big”. To be continued, I suppose.

If it’s true and social games are the killer-apps of social networks, it isn’t too much of a stretch to see their migration to open data standards migrating users there as well.